US Corn S/D & Price Outlook
USDA did not change the US corn crop, year 2024/25 supply/usage balance this month but did reduce prospective US sorghum exports sharply and added the reduction to domestic sorghum feed usage. The sorghum supply/demand balance is small compared to the corn balance but this month’s sorghum changes were not reflected in a reduction in corn feed residual usage.
| US Corn Supply/Usage Million Bushels & acres | |||||
| 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/2025 | |
| 2/11/25 | 2/11/25 | ||||
| Area Planted | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.6 | 92.0 | 1.5% |
| Area Harvested | 78.7 | 86.5 | 82.9 | 84.1 | 1.4% |
| Yield per Harv. Ac. | 173.4 | 177.3 | 179 | 182 | 1.5% |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,540 | -12.6% |
| Production | 13,651 | 15,341 | 14,867 | 15,305 | 2.9% |
| Imports | 39 | 28 | 25 | 25 | |
| Supply, Total | 15,066 | 16,729 | 16,655 | 16,870 | 1.3% |
| Feed and Residual | 5,486 | 5,804 | 5,775 | 5,925 | 2.6% |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 6,558 | 6,869 | 6,890 | 6,860 | -0.4% |
| Ethanol & by-products | 5,176 | 5,478 | 5,500 | 5,475 | -0.5% |
| Domestic, Total | 12,044 | 12,673 | 12,665 | 12,785 | 0.9% |
| Exports | 1,662 | 2,292 | 2,450 | 2,275 | -7.1% |
| Use, Total | 13,706 | 14,966 | 15,115 | 15,060 | -0.4% |
| Ending Stocks | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,540 | 1,810 | 17.5% |
| Carryout/Usage* | 17% | 19% | 16% | 20% | |
| Farm Price | $6.54 | $4.55 | $4.35 | $3.90 | -10.3% |
Corn market traders will begin to focus on new crop corn prospects as the old crop S/D data becomes well known and the release of the March Planting Intention survey approaches on 03/31/2025. We have plugged in USDA’s baseline supply/demand projections for 2025/2026. At this point 2025/2026 data are just trendline forecasts but they provide a useful yardstick to measure changing corn economic prospects.
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