US CORN MUST PLAY CATCH UP – 7/4/2023

The USDA reported that 51% of the US corn crop is in good or excellent condition on 7/2/2023, which is below the 30+ year average of 66%. This is also below the 64% that was reported at the same time last year.

In June, the USDA projected a national average corn yield of 181.5 bushels per harvested acre. This  exceeds the current record large yield of 177 bushels in 2021.

However,  our corn yield model suggests that the good/excellent corn condition index must exceed 65% by mid-August to ensure the record yield forecast. The model also shows that there is a significant correlation between the early July and mid-August corn condition indices. In only one year, 1992, the crop index improved enough to be associated with a record national average corn yield.

The USDA will issue a revised new crop US corn supply/usage balance on July 12. It is likely that the USDA will use a more conservative corn yield estimate than was published last month.