US Corn Feed Usage projections After the Grain Stocks Report & Strike implications for corn market traders
The September 1, 2024 Grain Stocks Report showed US corn stocks (carryover) about 50 million bushels under the USDA’s most recent estimate. This discrepancy will likely be added to the feed residual component for the 2023/2024 crop year and much more importantly raises the prospective feed usage in the 2024/2025 crop year.
The accompanying table summarizes US corn feed usage in recent years along with Grain Consuming Animal Units and corn price at farm level. Note the 2024/25 feed usage forecast based on the current independent variables assumptions suggest a slightly lesser feed usage than USDA predicted last month. However the USDA September 2024/25 feed/residual forecast does easily fit within the standard error of the US feed usage model.
| US Corn Usage Data (Million Bushels) | |||
| Crop Year | Feed Residual | GCAU | Farm Price |
| 2021/22 | 5,726 | 100.1 | $6.00 |
| 2022/23 | 5,549 | 99.7 | $6.54 |
| 2023/24 | 5,825 | 100.4 | $4.65 |
| 2024/25 | 5,811 | 99.6 | $4.10 |
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Based on USDA September 2024 Data.
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Also, corn market traders have the current Gulf port Longshoremen strike to consider as 80% of US corn export sales are shipped through Gulf ports. The US has sold just short of 600 million bushels of corn for 2024/25 delivery which is much stronger than the previous two years but well short of the 2020/21 & 2022/23 crop years when China was a major customer. An extended strike would shift potential US corn exports to alternative sources.