US Corn Export Analysis – 03/26/2021

The US had sold a record 2.56 billion bushels of corn by mid March with 36% of the total accounted for by China. In the March WAOB report USDA forecast 2020/2021 crop year exports at 2.6 billion bushels. We have scattered crop year exports as a function of mid March sales. Note that the USDA export forecast requires a considerable bend in the historical regression line to achieve a fit. The China distortion in the sales data accounts from some of the bend in the curve. But it seems likely crop year US corn exports will exceed the March USDA forecast by more than  one hundred million bushels.