US Corn Crop Slightly Smaller Than August Estimate? – 8/30/2022
The 2022 corn growing season has come to a close with the crop rated average based on data from the last thirty years. A model using the good-excellent rating for 8/28/2022 suggests a US national average corn yield of 174 bushels/harvested acre compared the USDA’s August estimate of 175.4 bushels. In recent years the September yield estimate has been less than the August estimate in years in which the late weekly model estimate was less than the August forecast. The expected change is small but the analysis does suggest the 2022 US corn crop is not much larger than suggested by USDA this month.
| Change in August to September Corn Crop Estimates | |||
| Bushels per Harvested Acre | |||
|
Change USDA Estimates
|
Model-August Estimate
|
||
| -2.5 | -12.4 | ||
| -4.9 | -6.2 | ||
| -0.6 | -0.3 | ||
| 0.9 | 3.7 | ||
| 4.3 | 3.6 | ||
| -1.3 | -0.4 | ||
| -0.7 | -0.5 | ||
| 0.4 | 7.1 | ||
| 2.9 | -2.0 | ||
| -1.3 | -2.0 | ||
| -3.3 | -10.4 | ||
| -3.3 | -4.8 | ||
| -1.6 |