US Corn Crop on Track to Exceed USDA Forecast
USDA rated 67% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition on 7/21/2024 which is in the upper 51% of ratings in the period 1985 through 2023. On the same date 61% of the corn crop had reached the Silk stage, which was ahead of the recent five year average and means the crop will be nearly “made” in another week. After the silk stage is complete the crop can still vary by a few hundred million bushels, but the danger of a billion bushel + crop reduction from trend has passed.
We have summarized our late July national average corn yield forecast model in the accompanying table. The current model forecast is 185 bushels per acre compared to USDA’s trend line forecast of 181 bushels per harvested acre. The standard deviation for our models is seven bushels so the USDA trend forecast falls within that range, but a larger yield is more likely.
| US Corn Data Million Bushels/Acres | |||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | USDA July | |
| Planted | 92,901 | 88,162 | 94,641 | 91,475 | 91,475 |
| Harvested | 84,988 | 78,705 | 86,513 | 83,438 | 83,438 |
| % Harvested | 91.5% | 89.3% | 91.4% | 91.2% | 91.2% |
| Yield Bu./Ac. | 177 | 173 | 177 | 185 | 181 |
| Production | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,342 | 15,436 | 15,100 |
| Crop Index | 65 | 64 | 57 | 67 | |
| & Yield model Late July est. as a function of crop index 7/21/2024 | |||||
| Crop Index | Trend | Intercept | Betas | ||
| 0.64 | 2.01 | 3934 | |||
| R2 | Std Error | ||||
| 93% | 7 Bu./acre | ||||
| 8 | 22 | T Stats | |||
| Yield calculation 67 * .64 + 2024*2.01 – 3934 | |||||
| Based on data 1985 – 2023 | |||||