US Cattle Inventory Likely Declined agaIn in 2023 – 01/09/2024
USDA is scheduled to publish results of the January US cattle survey on January 31,2024. We estimate the January 1 herd numbered less than 88 million head, down 2% on a year over year basis Our estimates assume the USDA’s projection of the U:S second half 2023 calf crop projection released in July 2023..
The need to restrict the percent of cows and heifers sent to slaughter in 2024 will likely be the dominant price supporting force in the cattle futures market in 2024.
| US Cattle Balance (000 Head) July/December | ||||
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | |
| July 1 Inventory | 103,000 | 100,800 | 98,600 | 95,900 |
| Calf Crop | 9,646 | 9,466 | 9,165 | 9,000 |
| Imports | 999 | 873 | 773 | 810 |
| Supply | 113,645 | 111,139 | 108,537 | 105,710 |
| Slaughter | 16,965 | 17,061 | 17,248 | 16,259 |
| Calf Slaughter | 221 | 210 | 189 | 144 |
| exports | 200 | 253 | 252 | 225 |
| Total | 17,385 | 17,524 | 17,688 | 16,627 |
| *Death Loss/Resiual | 1,459 | 1,539 | 1,575 | 1,500 |
| January 1 Inventory | 94,800 | 92,077 | 89,274 | 87,583 |
| 2023/24 LACO estimate * Death loss and stat. discrepancy | ||||