US Cattle Inventory Declines in 2022. – 12/28/2022
We calculate the US cattle inventory declined 2+% this year., to the smallest herd since 2015. Favorable feeder cattle returns have drawn heifers into feedlots rather than rebuild the breeding herd. .
The need to rebuild the US cattle herd and ensure adequate beef supplies beyond 2023 will likely be a major price supporting force in the cattle futures market in the year ahead. April 2023 live cattle are projected to top the current winter – spring high of $166 (established in 2015 which is also the most recent low in US cattle inventory)
| US Cattle Balance (000 Head) July/December | |||
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | |
| July 1 Inventory | 103,000 | 100,800 | 98,800 |
| Calf Crop | 9,646 | 9,455 | 9,300 |
| Imports | 999 | 873 | 715 |
| Supply | 113,645 | 111,128 | 108,815 |
| Slaughter | 16,965 | 17,061 | 17,248 |
| Calf Slaughter | 221 | 210 | 196 |
| exports | 200 | 253 | 241 |
| Total | 17,385 | 17,524 | 17,685 |
| *Death Loss/Res. | 1,459 | 1,703 | 1,500 |
| January 1 Inventory | 94,800 | 91,902 | 89,630 |
| 2022/23 LACO estimate * Death loss and stat. discrepancy | |||