US Beef Production to Decline – 12/7/2022
USDA has forecast a sharp reduction in US beef production in 2023 based on the reduction in cattle inventories that has been evident over the last three years. We have constructed a table displaying cattle slaughter and beef production by quarter. Our forecast yields a slightly larger beef production forecast for the last half of 2023 than USDA, but still sharply below the previous year’s level.
| US Cattle Slaughter (thousand head) & Beef Production (million pounds) | |||||||
| January March | April June | ||||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 Proj | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 Proj | ||
| Feedlot Mkt | 5,537 | 5,598 | 5,430 | 5,828 | 5,868 | 5,457 | |
| Non Fed | 797 | 730 | 693 | 750 | 785 | 628.65 | |
| Cows& Bulls | 1,777 | 1,910 | 1,720 | 1,758 | 1,850 | 1,702 | |
| FIS | 8,111 | 8,238 | 7,843 | 8,336 | 8,502 | 7,788 | |
| commercial | 8,274 | 8,404 | 8,000 | 8,502 | 8,668 | 7,944 | |
| Com% FIS | 102.0% | 102.0% | 102.0% | 102.0% | 101.9% | 102.0% | |
| Com Beef | 6,895 | 6,985 | 6,666 | 6,957 | 7,068 | 6,511 | |
| Weight | 833 | 831 | 833 | 818 | 815 | 820 | |
| USDA Forecast. | 6705 | 6555 | |||||
| July September | October December | ||||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 Proj | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 Proj | ||
| Feedlot Mkt | 5,585 | 5,664 | 5,211 | 5,518 | 5,642 | 5,191 | |
| Non Fed | 975 | 1,046 | 918 | 983 | 1,129 | 884 | |
| Cows& Bulls | 1,807 | 1,879 | 1,705 | 1,871 | 1,929 | 1,705 | |
| FIS | 8,367 | 8,589 | 7,834 | 8,372 | 8,700 | 7,780 | |
| commercial | 8,526 | 8,755 | 7,991 | 8,536 | 8,876 | 7,935 | |
| Com% FIS | 101.9% | 101.9% | 102.0% | 102.0% | 102.0% | 102.0% | |
| Com Beef | 6,939 | 7,146 | 6,630 | 7,108 | 7,301 | 6,640 | |
| Weight | 814 | 816 | 830 | 833 | 823 | 837 | |
| USDA Forecast. | 6490 | 6525 | |||||
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Cattle in head our breakout
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