U.S. Wheat Supply Projected to Increase in 2024/25
The USDA’s WASDE report provides a slightly bearish outlook for U.S. wheat in the 2024/25 marketing year. Here are the key takeaways:
- Larger Supplies: Overall wheat supplies are projected to be up 6% from 2023/24 due to larger beginning stocks and increased production.
- Production Increase: All wheat production is forecast at 1,858 million bushels, up 3% from last year on higher harvested acreage and yields.
- Increased Exports: Exports are projected at 775 million bushels, up 55 million from the revised 2023/24 exports, due to larger U.S. exportable supplies and more competitive prices.
- Domestic Use Up Slightly: Total 2024/25 domestic use is projected up 1%, primarily on higher feed and residual use.
- Lower Prices Expected: The 2024/25 season-average farm price is projected lower at $6.00 per bushel based on larger domestic wheat supplies and abundant corn supplies.
| US Wheat Supply/Usage (Million Bu./ Acres) | |||||
| Crop Years | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 |
| Planted | 44.5 | 46.7 | 45.8 | 49.6 | 47.5 |
| Harv. | 36.8 | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.3 | 38.0 |
| Yield | 49.7 | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.6 | 48.9 |
| Carryin | 1028 | 845 | 674 | 570 | 688 |
| Prod | 1828 | 1646 | 1650 | 1812 | 1858 |
| Imports | 100 | 96 | 122 | 140 | 120 |
| Supply | 2956 | 2588 | 2446 | 2522 | 2665 |
| Food | 961 | 971 | 973 | 960 | 962 |
| Seed | 64 | 58 | 68 | 64 | 62 |
| Feed | 93 | 88 | 77 | 90 | 100 |
| Domestic | 1117 | 1117 | 1118 | 1114 | 1124 |
| Exports | 994 | 796 | 759 | 720 | 775 |
| Total | 2111 | 1913 | 1876 | 1834 | 1899 |
| Carryout | 845 | 674 | 570 | 688 | 766 |
| Farm $/Bu. | $5.05 | $7.63 | $8.83 | $7.10 | $6.00 |
| Carryout%use | 40.0% | 35.2% | 30.4% | 37.5% | 40.3% |
| Based on USDA Data published 5/10/2024 | |||||
The accompanying scatter studies display the high and low price for the December Chicago wheat contract (June December) as a function of the US wheat carryout/ crop year usage ratio. The point plotted for 2024 is the USDA’s May 2024 carryout/usage ratio projection and the close for December Chicago wheat on May 15, 2024. Note that wheat is currently trading on the high side of the line established during the period from 2008 through 2023..The studies suggest a smaller US wheat crop or an external bullish force (i.e. a row crop weather market this summer or reduced foreign wheat production) may be needed to support new crop Chicago wheat values.