The US Soybean crop at mid Season – 07/20/2021

The USDA rated 60% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition on 7/18/2021 which compared to the preceding 35-year average of 61%. A model based on the  mid-season crop rating for the years 1986 through 2020 forecasts a national average soybean yield of 49.5 bushels per harvested acre. Earlier this month USDA forecast the 2021 yield at 50.8 bushels per harvested acre. The yield model has an R2 of 88% with a standard error of 2 bushels per harvested acre. Top soil moisture in the major soybean states is mostly adequate.

The USDA yield forecast is within the standard error of the mid July rating model, but the difference is interesting because the current USDA new crop soybean supply/usage balance has the 2021/2022 carryout at the minimum pipe line level and a lower yield would require pricing out additional usage.