The Soybean Complex needs more Planted Area – 04/16/2021

The March Prospective Planting survey found farmers intending to plant 87.6 million acres to soybeans this spring. Except in a favorable growing season that area won’t be enough to cover 2021/2022 US soybean usage as projected in the benchmark estimates published in February 2021. In the near term the market’s solution will be to draw more soybean acreage with favorable prices versus corn, the major competitor for acreage.   Soybean planted area can also be expanded by planting marginal area and inducing more double cropping where feasible.

The accompanying supply/usage table displays the projected data assuming the March report and February benchmark assumptions. Note that we have had to trim the 2021/2022 crush and exports forecasts to provide a reasonable new crop soybean carryout inventory. 

A normal South American season this winter (Austral summer) is implicit in the new crop U.S. soybean usage forecasts.