The November – July Soybean Spread
Historically, the new crop soybean (November 2023) – old crop soybean (July 2023) spread has been correlated with USDA’s January assessment of the old crop US soybean supply/usage balance. This month USDA forecast a 210 million bushel 2022/2023 crop year carryout stocks or just 5% of crop year soybean crush plus exports and seed usage. Based on the January S/D forecast the November 2023 – July 2023 spread is forecast to trade between 75 cents premium July to 250 cents premium the July contract.
USDA downgraded the 2023 Argentine soybean crop this month. Soybean crop problems in Brazil would support old crop soybeans versus the new crop contract. The 2023 crop season in Brazil has roughly two months until the bulk of harvest is complete.
| US Soybean Supply/Usage Million Acres/Bushels | |||
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | |
| Area Planted | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 |
| Area Harvested | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.3 |
| Filler | |||
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 51.0 | 51.7 | 49.5 |
| Beginning Stocks | 525 | 257 | 274 |
| Production | 4,216 | 4465 | 4,276 |
| Imports | 20 | 16 | 15 |
| Supply, Total | 4,761 | 4738 | 4,566 |
| Crushings | 2,141 | 2204 | 2,245 |
| Exports | 2,265 | 2158 | 1,990 |
| Seed | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Residual | -3 | 2 | 18 |
| Use, Total | 4,505 | 4465 | 4,355 |
| Ending Stocks | 256 | 274 | 210 |
| Carry/Usage* | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% |
| January 2023 USDA Data | |||
Min spread = most July over November & Max = most July under November.