The June Reports impact on the Prospective US Corn S/D – 06/30/2022

The USDA’s June Acreage Survey put 2022 US corn planted area at 89.9 million acres compared to the March survey of 89.4 million and planted area in 2021 of  93.4 million acres. In the June WASDE report USDA projected the  national trend corn yield at 177 bushels per acre. Crop conditions at the end of June would easily support USDA’s trend yield, but Corn Belt weather in July could still result in a major swing in corn crop prospects. 

US corn stocks on June 1 were reported at 4.3 billion bushels compared to 4.1 billion bushels a year ago. Our calculations suggest 2021/2022 feed/residual usage at 5.8 billion bushels compared to the current USDA estimate of 5.6 billion bushels. The USDA’s new crop feed/residual projection also appears consevative, but $6.00 plus corn could restrict demand as feed usage is the most price elastic corn usage category.

The typical December corn seasonal suggests a July/November trading range of $4.70 to $7.00.  The current break in December corn appears premature although justified if July weather is favorable for corn production.