The first wheat condition assessment of the season

The USDA Rated 62% of the U.S. wheat crop in good or excellent condition on April 5 which is an improvement over the 52% rated at good/excellent prior to dormancy. In the period 1988 through 2019 USDA rated an average 52% of the winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition in early April.

The average U.S. winter wheat yield would almost certainly exceed trend if a 60 percent plus rating were maintained into early summer. But conditions have sometimes changed radically over the April – May period depending on weather conditions. We calculate trend yield at 52 bushels per harvested acre compared to the 54 bushels per acre achieved in 2019 and the record 55 bushels in 2016.  A record matching yield would put the 2020 winter wheat crop at 1.3 billion bushels compared to a rounded 1.23 billion bushels in 2019.