The Bullish Picture for August Live Cattle – 02/21/2023

Published by David Tedrow on

August live cattle appear to have significant upside potential based on the latest supply/usage forecasts from USDA. We present the results of a cattle price forecast model which uses US beef production and exports combined with the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to project a late winter through summer price range forecast for August live cattle. The resulting price range forecast of  $151 up to $181 compares to August live cattle trading at $159 on 02/21/2023.

Larger than expected summer beef supplies is the major hazard to a long cattle futures play.   

                                 Forecast February – August live $/Cwt.
High Low
Forecast $181 $155
standard deviation $9 $9
% Rsq 90% 87%

                   Assumptions for 2023 August Live Price Range Forecast
2022 2023 % Change
Beef Production 7,146 6,530 -9%
Beef Exports 943 900 -5%
US GDP $25,663 $27,716 8%
Beef Production & Exports in Million Pounds, GDP in Trillion $
Data for third calendar quarter 2023

 

Categories: Livestock