Summer 2024 US Corn Market Outlook
USDA has scheduled the first WASDE report of the season that will include a prospective US corn supply/usage balance for the 2024/2025 crop year. The only survey backed data in the May report is the planted area estimate taken from the March Prospective Planting Report. The remainder of the 2024/25 balance sheet is based on trend and analysts judgment on possible deviations from trend. We have compiled our 2024/25 US corn supply/usage balance based on USDA’s Baseline trend forecast published in February 2024 and plugging in the March US corn planted area forecast of 90 million acres.
| US Corn Supply/Usage Million Bushels & acres | ||||
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | |
| USDA April | USDA April | |||
| Area Planted | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.1 |
| Area Harvested | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 83.1 |
| Yield per Harv. Ac. | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 181.0 |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 2,122 |
| Production | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,342 | 15,041 |
| Imports | 24 | 39 | 25 | 25 |
| Supply, Total | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,727 | 17,188 |
| Feed and Residual | 5,671 | 5,487 | 5,700 | 5,800 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 6,757 | 6,558 | 6,805 | 6,710 |
| Ethanol & by-products | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,400 | 5,300 |
| Domestic, Total | 12,427 | 12,045 | 12,505 | 12,510 |
| Exports | 2,472 | 1,661 | 2,100 | 2,050 |
| Use, Total | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,605 | 14,560 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,377 | 1,360 | 2,122 | 2,628 |
| Carryout/Usage* | 9% | 10% | 15% | 18% |
| *April 2024 USDA Est.. & Projections based on March Planting Survey & Baseline usage data. | ||||
Of course the projected corn balance will only be good until the first major event, probably weather, impacts trader’s supply/usage evaluation. We have included a chart of the historic summer price range for December corn futures with a projection for summer 2024..Historically,the summer price range for December corn has been correlated with the USDA’s late summer new crop corn carryout estimates and livestock and poultry prices. The trend US corn balance table suggests a December corn price range of $3.80 to $5.30 compared with a 4/22/2024 mid session quote of $4.73.