Strong Export Sales led USDA to Cut US Corn Carryout Stocks
USDA reduced the US 2024/2025. corn carryout stocks projection this month reflecting strong export sales this autumn. So far the sales leap has been accomplished without the participation of China. Significant sales to China would be very positive for corn futures prices, but so far there has been no indication China needs additional feed grain supplies this season (2024/2025).
| US Corn Supply/Usage Million Bushels & acres | ||||
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | |
| 12/10/24 | 12/10/24 | |||
| Area Planted | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 91 |
| Area Harvested | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 83 |
| Yield per Harv. Ac. | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 183 |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,760 |
| Production | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,341 | 15,143 |
| Imports | 24 | 39 | 28 | 25 |
| Supply, Total | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,729 | 16,928 |
| Feed and Residual | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,807 | 5,825 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 6,757 | 6,558 | 6,869 | 6,890 |
| Ethanol & by-products | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,478 | 5,500 |
| Domestic, Total | 12,427 | 12,044 | 12,676 | 12,715 |
| Exports | 2,472 | 1,662 | 2,292 | 2,475 |
| Use, Total | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,969 | 15,190 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,760 | 1,738 |
| Carryout/Usage* | 9% | 10% | 12% | 11% |
| Farm Price | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.55 | $4.10 |
| December 2024 USDA data. *Carryout % Usage | ||||
We have included two scatter studies displaying the winter spring price range for July corn futures as a function of the US corn carryout stocks usage ratio as forecast by USDA in the spring. USDA’s December forecast of a U:S corn carryout of 11.4 % of crop year usage would suggest a high near $5.00 and a low of about $4.25. The red and green points on the scatters are based on the close on 12/11/2024 and are just meant to mark the current July futures price level.