Spring Corn Outlook

We use a model that forecasts corn price (Central Illinois) ) based on corn carryout stocks and food, seed and industrial corn usage. The model calculates a spring early  price range of $4.03 to $4.42 assuming the March USDA old crop supply/demand estimates. The scatter plot shows May corn trading at the low end of the forecast range.

New crop corn information will become increasingly important as the spring progresses. The old crop price forecast provides a useful axis around which new crop price discovery proceeds. We think it likely the early corn supply/usage balances ( beginning in May) will feature a sizable build in US corn carryout stocks in the 2020/2021 crop year.  But old crop futures prices could rally if the current adverse economic condition abates or an early weather scare generates buying.