Soybeans in the twenty Dollar + Range? – 02/02/2022

USDA is likely to tighten the US soybean supply/usage forecast this month because of a smaller than expected soybean crop in South America. We have prepared a soybean balance with a what if assumption compared to the January  USDA estimate. The balance table methodology used by most fundamentalists becomes less effective when the projected carryout drops near or below zero which could be the present case for 2022 old crop US soybean stocks. We have included scatter studies displaying the February high and low for cash soybeans in the Midwest. Rationing supplies to provide a minimum workable soybean carryout could require $20 plus soybeans this season.