Soybeans Economic Value for a High – 03/09/2021

Midwest soybeans appear to have additional upside potential based on forecast in the latest WAOB report. USDA now estimates the 2020/2021 US soybean carryout at only 120 million bushels or less than 3% of crop year usage (excluding residual) compared to 10% a year ago. We have scattered the harvest through spring high for Midwest soybeans as a function of the carryout to usage ratio. Note that a 3% ratio is tighter than any other year and would likely require rationing usage to provide a more comfortable stocks level.