Soybeans at Farm Level – 8/14/2020
The accompanying scatter study displays the average season farm level soybean price as a function of the soybean carryout stocks to crop year usage ratio. The August 2020 WAOB soybean supply usage balance results in a new crop ratio of 14% compared to the old crop ratio of 16%.
The USDA’s price forecast, $8.35, falls directly on the regression line. Major soybean crop problems in the Southern Hemisphere in the 2020/2021 austral summer would move the data point to the left and result in a much higher price forecast.