Soybean Yield Forecast Lagging Behind USDA July Projection – 07/18/2022

USDA rated 61% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition on July 17 which is close to the long term average. A model using the crop index and trend to project the national US soybean yield calculates the 2022 crop at 50.4 bushels per harvested acre which is about one bushel less than USDA’s July estimate of 51.5 bushels per harvested acre. The model based on data  collected on or about 7/17 has a R2 of 90% with a standard error of two bushels per acre. By way of comparison the R2 rises to 94% (standard error 1.6 bushels) based on crop condition data collected at the end of the growing season.