Soybean Production Prospects as of Late June – 06/21/2021

The USDA rated 60% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of June 20 which is slightly behind the 62% average for the same week  for the years from 1986 through 2020. In the June WAOB report USDA forecast the US average soybean yield at 50.8 bushels per harvested acre which is the largest June yield estimate, but less than the record final yield estimate recorded in 2016.  USDA’s current soybean crop assessment supports the June yield forecast although just barely.  

In the  March Prospective plantings report US farmers indicated they would plant 87.6 million acres which would be a near record area devoted to soybeans after the 2017 and 2018 crop years. Soybean returns were exceptionally favorable during the planting season, but we doubt the June survey will show planted acres much above the March report. 

Our concussion is that as of late June the WAOB production estimate published on June 11 is still a reasonable forecast. But with six plus weeks left in the critical growing period, the 2021 US soybean crop could be much larger or very much smaller than the June forecast depending of course on weather.