Soybean meal Seasonal Price Analysis – 03/16/2024
July 2024 soybean meal is trading more than $100 under July 2023 Soybean meal at the same time last year. The prospect of a record large South American soybean crop (the bulk of which is harvested from February through April) has weighed on US old crop soybeans and soybean meal futures.
However the soybean meal price trend could change. Over the last 50+ years the soybean meal price trend from Mid March through Summer has skewed to the bull side as soybean meal futures prices have advanced more than declined in 80% of years in which mid July meal was trading less than the previous year’s contract level.
Spring Summer Soybean Meal Price Change | |||
Mid March to summer Change | Advanced = 1 | ||
Year* | High % | Low % | Declined = 0 |
1974 | -15% | -37% | 0 |
1975 | 14% | 2% | 1 |
1978 | 18% | 5% | 1 |
1980 | 26% | -7% | 1 |
1982 | 7% | -5% | 1 |
1983 | 12% | -3% | 1 |
1985 | 6% | -9% | 0 |
1987 | 37% | 5% | 1 |
1990 | 17% | 2% | 1 |
1995 | 19% | 4% | 1 |
1998 | 1% | -15% | 0 |
1999 | 14% | -4% | 1 |
2001 | 14% | -6% | 1 |
2002 | 12% | 1% | 1 |
2005 | 36% | 4% | 1 |
2006 | 5% | -4% | 1 |
2009 | 59% | 1% | 1 |
2010 | 11% | -3% | 1 |
2012 | 31% | 12% | 1 |
2015 | 5% | -12% | 0 |
2016 | 57% | 11% | 1 |
2019 | 8% | -7% | 1 |
2020 | 2% | -6% | 0 |
*Years in Which July soybean Meal was Trading under the previous year’s price in Mid March
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