Soybean meal Seasonal Price Analysis – 03/16/2024

Published by David Tedrow on

July 2024 soybean meal is trading more than $100 under July 2023 Soybean meal at the same time last year. The prospect of a record large South American soybean crop (the bulk of which is harvested from February through April) has weighed on US old crop soybeans and soybean meal futures.

However the soybean meal price trend could change. Over the last 50+ years the soybean meal price trend from Mid March through Summer has skewed to the bull side as soybean meal futures prices have advanced more than declined  in 80% of years in which mid July  meal was trading less than the previous year’s contract level.

Spring Summer Soybean Meal Price Change
Mid March to summer Change Advanced = 1
Year* High % Low % Declined = 0
1974 -15% -37% 0
1975 14% 2% 1
1978 18% 5% 1
1980 26% -7% 1
1982 7% -5% 1
1983 12% -3% 1
1985 6% -9% 0
1987 37% 5% 1
1990 17% 2% 1
1995 19% 4% 1
1998 1% -15% 0
1999 14% -4% 1
2001 14% -6% 1
2002 12% 1% 1
2005 36% 4% 1
2006 5% -4% 1
2009 59% 1% 1
2010 11% -3% 1
2012 31% 12% 1
2015 5% -12% 0
2016 57% 11% 1
2019 8% -7% 1
2020 2% -6% 0
*Years in Which July soybean Meal was Trading under the previous year’s price in Mid March