Soybean Harvest Economic Value based on new USDA data – 10/12/2021

USDA increased the new crop soybean US soybean carryout forecast this month  to 320 million bushels from 185 million bushels in September. The soybean carryout to crop year usage ratio would calculate to 7% based on the October data compared to 4% in September. A 7% ratio would suggest a $10 to $12/bushel fall harvest time price range basis No. One soybeans at central Illinois processors. 

The soybean complex market will switch focus from the  US to the Southern Hemisphere over the next few weeks. A change in Brazil and/or Argentine soybean prospects from that  published  in the October WAOB report would be expressed as a shift to the right (bigger Southern Hemisphere crops or left (diminished South American crop prospects) in the economic value study due to increased/decreased export demand for US soybeans and products.   

Note that the historic soybean supply/usage data estimates used in the study is that published by USDA during the harvest period.