Soybean Economic Value Study Autumn through Spring. 10/01/2020

The accompanying scatter study displays the high for central Illinois soybeans as a function of the new crop soybean carryout as a percent of usage excluding residual. Working the recent stocks data through USDA’s September S/D balance results in a 9% estimate for the independent variable.

The Southern hemisphere crop outlook this winter (the austral summer) can be expressed in a change in demand for U.S. soybeans and movement in our S/D indicator. Southern Hemisphere soybean crop concern because of adverse  weather would shift the indicator to the left and push soybean prices well into the teens.