Soybean Economic Value Studies – 01/13/2022

This month USDA forecast the 2021/2022 crop year US soybean carryout at 350 million bushels or 8.1% of usage (crush, exports and seed). The accompanying scatter studies display the January – May high and lows for cash soybeans (Central Illinois) as a function of the US soybean to crop year usage ratio. Note that current soybean futures prices are on the high side of historical experience assuming the USDA’s January forecast. 

The US soybean carryout to usage ratio could tighten up (shift to the left) if poor crop conditions continue to impact the Brazilian and/or Argentine soybean crops  The Austral soybean crop season has six weeks yet to completion and start of late crop harvest. US soybean export demand during the last half of the US crop year is highly dependent on the Southern Hemisphere new crop soybean supplies.