Soybean Crop Rating Declines – 09/16/2020

USDA rated 63% of the U.S. soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of mid September which is down from 70%+ in mid summer, but still in the upper two third of years since 1988.

A yield model using trend and the weekly rating estimates the national average soybean yield of 50 bushels per harvested acre compared to the USDA September estimate of just under 52 bushels per acre. The ratings model has a slightly higher R2 and lower standard error than the September estimate when run over the same  1988-2019 period. The study suggests USDA could shave a bit off the  soybean estimate next month.