Soybean Crop Rating Behind that needed to make USDA trendline projection. -07/05/2023

Last month the USDA forecast a record US soybean national average soybean yield of 52 bushels per harvested acre. However, in the week ending 7/2/2023, the USDA rated just 51% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition. This is significantly below the 35-year average of 66% for the same week.

Our soybean yield model based on the weekly ratings suggests that the end of August good/excellent rating must be in the mid 60s to generate a record soybean yield forecast. This is because the soybean crop is most vulnerable to weather stress during the pollination and pod-filling stages, which occur in late July and August. If the crop is not in good condition during these stages, it will not be able to reach its full yield potential.

The accompanying study displays the end of August crop rating compared to that of early July. This shows that there is a strong correlation between the two ratings. In other words, if the crop is in good condition in early July, it is more likely to be in good condition in late August.

Based on this information, it is possible but unlikely that the US soybean crop will reach a record yield in 2023. The current good/excellent rating is well below the level needed to ensure a record yield, and regular rainfall will be needed to ensure  that the crop will improve significantly in the coming months.