Soybean Area Falls Short – 03/31/2021

The March Planting Survey projected 2021 soybean planted area at 87.6 million acres, up from 83 million acres a year ago , but short of what is needed to cover usage as presently forecast by USDA.  

We have scattered the final soybean planted area as a function of the March forecast. In most years the early estimate is a good indicator of the final. Weather caused the major deviations.

In the baseline report USDA forecast the 2021 trend yield at 50.6 bushels per harvested acre, which, assuming an average harvested to planted ratio, would produce a 2021 US soybean crop of 4.4 billion bushels. The Baseline US soybean usage forecast for the 2021/2022 crop year is 4.5 billion bushels.        

Obviously the soybean market would need to ration usage, entice more acreage or both.