South American historicall price impact on July Soybeans
Soybean crop development in Brazil and Argentina during the austral summer will likely hold traders’ attention through the next few months. USDA expects the combined crop in the Southern Hemisphere will be much larger than the 2022 US soybean crop. So far weather has been less than favorable in Argentina, but average or better in Brazil.
Historically, US soybean prices have declined in years in which the USDA increased the Southern Hemisphere soybean crop estimate during the December to July period. The opposite price trend has been observed in years of declining crop prospects. But there have been several exceptional years, especially in the pre millennium when the South American crop was small compared to the US Soybean crop. In 2009 an economic recession weighted on soybean prices.
| Brazil + Argentina. | July Soybeans | Positive – | |||
| %Prod Chg. July/December | Year | % Net Chg. 1/4 to Jan/Apr. |
Negative Change
|
||
| 79% | 2009 | -19.6% | -1 | ||
| 84% | 2012 | 15.1% | 1 | ||
| 87% | 2005 | 15.3% | 1 | ||
| 87% | 2022 | 22.0% | 1 | ||
| 89% | 1986 | -7.3% | -1 | ||
| 89% | 2004 | 37.1% | 1 | ||
| 90% | 1991 | 1.7% | 1 | ||
| 92% | 1989 | -13.8% | -1 | ||
| 95% | 2006 | -3.3% | -1 | ||
| 95% | 2018 | 11.8% | 1 | ||
| 96% | 1997 | 27.4% | 1 | ||
| 97% | 1990 | 4.9% | 1 | ||
| 97% | 2013 | 5.5% | 1 | ||
| 98% | 2016 | 19.3% | 1 | ||
| 98% | 2019 | -6.0% | -1 | ||
| 98% | 2021 | 10.4% | 1 | ||
| 99% | 2008 | 11.4% | 1 | ||
| 100% | 1996 | 10.5% | 1 | ||
| 100% | 2014 | 21.1% | 1 | ||
| 100% | 2020 | -16.9% | -1 | ||
| 102% | 1992 | 4.8% | 1 | ||
| 103% | 1987 | 4.3% | 1 | ||
| 104% | 2015 | -2.1% | -1 | ||
| 105% | 1995 | 2.3% | 1 | ||
| 106% | 1994 | -3.3% | -1 | ||
| 106% | 2011 | -7.2% | -1 | ||
| 107% | 1988 | 5.7% | 1 | ||
| 107% | 2002 | 8.1% | 1 | ||
| 107% | 2000 | 14.1% | 1 | ||
| 108% | 2010 | -10.2% | -1 | ||
| 108% | 2017 | -2.1% | -1 | ||
| 108% | 1999 | -19.7% | -1 | ||
| 108% | 2007 | 18.7% | 1 | ||
| 111% | 2003 | 14.7% | 1 | ||
| 112% | 1993 | -0.8% | -1 | ||
| 113% | 2001 | -22.6% | -1 | ||
| 115% | 1998 | -2.2% | -1 | ||