South American 2025 Soybean Crop Update
USDA will provide any revisions it feels needed to the 2025 South American soybean crop estimates in the next WASDE report. Recent crop estimates other than USDA suggest the Argentine crop potential is declining while the Brazilian crop could exceed the USDA’s January forecast. The South American aggregate production could be a near wash.
We have added China soybean imports to our analysis as that country consumes nearly half the quantity of foreign soybeans as is produced in South America. USDA expects China imports to decline during the 2024/2025 crop year due to larger beginning stocks. As of late January, China has purchased 3% less US soybeans than a year ago and it is likely China import purchases will center on Brazil & Argentina in the spring and summer.
| South American Soybean Production and China Imports | ||||||
| Year | Brazil | Argentina | Paraguay | Total | China Imports | Percent |
| 2020 | 129 | 49 | 10 | 188 | 98 | 52% |
| 2021 | 140 | 46 | 10 | 196 | 100 | 51% |
| 2022 | 131 | 44 | 5 | 179 | 94 | 52% |
| 2023 | 162 | 25 | 10 | 197 | 94 | 48% |
| 2024 | 153 | 50 | 11 | 214 | 112 | 52% |
| 2025 | 172 | 49 | 11 | 232 | 109 | 47% |
| Million Tonnes Year of South American Harvest | ||||||
USDA scheduled publication of any revisions in South American or China soybean data deemed necessary on February 11, 2025.
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