South America Prospects Dominates Soybean Trading
USDA estimates the 2025 South American soybean crop at 8.7 billion bushels, up from 8.1 billion bushels a year ago. The South American soybean harvest is now under way. USDA projects South American soybean net exports will increase modestly in the 2024/25 crop year with crush and carryout stocks both increasing.
China soybean imports will likely decline modestly this season, which based on USDA March calculations, will leave an increase of 300+ million bushels available for shipment to other destinations. The projected increase in Western Hemisphere net soybean supply availability, after satisfying Chinese demand, as well as an increase in carryover inventory, explains the weakness in soybean prices this winter.
Through early March 2024/25 US to China soybean sales have totaled 785 million bushels or 47 million bushels less than at the same point a year ago.
In recent years CME July soybean prices have displayed a seasonal tendency to decline more than advance from mid March into the early summer. But downside potential for the July 2025 soybean contract is limited to about $9.25 based on historical experience and assuming USDA’s US soybean supply/usage balance estimate published this month.
| South American Soybean Balance in Million Bushels & Thousand acres | |||||
| 2020/2021 | 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 | |
| Area Harvested | 153,535 | 157,821 | 161,755 | 171,517 | 177,331 |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,788 | 2,057 | 1,911 | 2,005 | 1,945 |
| Production | 7,391 | 6,819 | 7,415 | 8,063 | 8,673 |
| Imports | 250 | 198 | 371 | 354 | 271 |
| Total Supply | 9,429 | 9,074 | 9,697 | 10,422 | 10,889 |
| Exports | 3,493 | 3,227 | 3,948 | 4,425 | 4,420 |
| Crush | 3,454 | 3,514 | 3,349 | 3,606 | 3,864 |
| Food Use Dom. Cons. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 422 | 418 | 393 | 443 | 470 |
| Domestic Consumption | 3,879 | 3,935 | 3,744 | 4,052 | 4,337 |
| Ending Stocks | 2,057 | 1,911 | 2,005 | 1,945 | 2,132 |
| Total Distribution | 9,429 | 9,074 | 9,697 | 10,422 | 10,889 |
| Yield | 48.2 | 43.3 | 45.8 | 47.0 | 48.9 |
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USDA March 2025
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| United States Soybean Balance in Million Bushels & Thousand acres | |||||
| 2020/2021 | 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 | |
| Area Harvested | 82,567 | 86,255 | 86,136 | 82,236 | 86,013 |
| Beginning Stocks | 539 | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 |
| Production | 4,216 | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,162 | 4,366 |
| Imports | 20 | 16 | 25 | 21 | 20 |
| Total Supply | 4,775 | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,447 | 4,729 |
| Exports | 2,266 | 2,152 | 1,980 | 1,695 | 1,825 |
| Crush | 2,141 | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,285 | 2,410 |
| Food Use Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 111 | 107 | 114 | 124 | 114 |
| Domestic Consumption | 2,252 | 2,311 | 2,326 | 2,410 | 2,524 |
| Ending Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 380 |
| Total Distribution | 4,775 | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,447 | 4,729 |
| Yield | 51.0 | 51.8 | 49.5 | 50.6 | 50.7 |
| USDA March 2025 | |||||
| Export/Import Balance million bushels | ||||||
| 2020/2021 | 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 | ||
| South America | Net Exports | 3,243 | 3,029 | 3,577 | 4,070 | 4,150 |
| United States | Net Exports | 2,246 | 2,136 | 1,955 | 1,674 | 1,805 |
| China | Net Imports | 3662 | 3314 | 3836 | 4113 | 4001 |
| Other | Net Imports | 1,827 | 1,851 | 1,695 | 1,632 | 1,953 |
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USDA March 2025
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