September US Hog Inventory – 08/31/2023
We estimate the September 1 US hog inventory at 72.8 million head, down 2% from the census at the same time last year. Our estimate assumes the USDA’s summer sows farrowing projection published in June 2023 and a trend projection for the number of pigs saved per litter.
| US Hog Balance June/August Million head | |||||
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Percent | |
| June 1 | 77.7 | 73.2 | 72.3 | 72.4 | 100% |
|
June/August Pig Crop
|
36.1 | 33.9 | 34.1 | 32.9 | 96% |
| Net Imports | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | |
| Supply | 114.9 | 108.8 | 108.0 | 106.8 | |
| Slaughter | 33.5 | 31.0 | 30.8 | 31.1 | 101% |
| Residual | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.9 | |
| September 1 | 78.1 | 74.9 | 74.1 | 72.8 | 98% |
| 2023 Our Estimate Assumes USDA Sows Farrowing Forecast published in June. | |||||
We have also included an autumn price range projection for December lean hogs based on the inventory data. Note that the December lean hog contract is trading near the lower end of the forecast range.
The USDA has scheduled the release of the September 2023 Hogs and Pigs Report for September 28, 2023