September Market Hog Inventory up fractionally from A Year Ago – 09/29/2023

USDA put the September 1 market hog inventory at 68 million head which is just fractionally larger than a year earlier. A regression study with October/March commercial hog slaughter as a function of original hog inventory data plus net live hog imports, suggests commercial hog slaughter over the next six months at 64.8 million head vs 64.7 million head during the same period in 2022/2023. The study has a R2 of 97% with a standard error of one million head for the six month period.

Note we use original data as USDA revises the historical inventory data based on actual slaughter and reduces the standard error of studies using revised data.