September Cattle on Feed Report – 10/21/2022

Feedlots increased finish cattle sales 4% last month but reduced the number of cattle placed by 4% in September 2022. Finished cattle marketings over the next seven months will increase fractionally on a year over year basis based on COF data. 

Cattle placements in the first nine months of the year have totaled almost 60% of the feeder cattle supply for the year which is a record heavy placement. Large placements suggest a potential reduction in cattle inventory which is a supporting force in the cattle futures market.

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In the October 2022 WASDE report USDA forecast a 5% reduction in the domestic per capita beef supply in 2023 compared to the availability in 2022. We have included two scatter studies with the inflation adjusted high & low for April live cattle. The prices were drawn from the October April period. The April live cattle contract appears to be significant upside potential   assuming the USDA’s beef supply forecast.