Recent History for December Live Cattle versus USDA forecasts.
This month USDA forecast an average price for Midwest finished steers of $183 per hundredweight for the October/December period On September 24, 2024 December 2024 Live cattle closed at $184 or 101% of the USDA’s fourth quarter forecast of $183.
Given the shortage of feeder cattle, December live cattle appear more likely to make a high in the average upper range of the study or $196 +. The average downside risk is 5% or equivalent to $175.
| USDA September Forecast Versus December Live Cattle Futures | ||||
| USDA | High | Percent | Low | Percent |
| $158 | $172 | 109% | $156 | 99% |
| $149 | $145 | 97% | $117 | 79% |
| $118 | $113 | 96% | $96 | 81% |
| $110 | $128 | 116% | $113 | 103% |
| $111 | $120 | 108% | $114 | 103% |
| $103 | $123 | 119% | $107 | 104% |
| $104 | $114 | 110% | $103 | 99% |
| $131 | $139 | 106% | $125 | 95% |
| $147 | $155 | 105% | $146 | 99% |
| $190 | $192 | 101% | $162 | 85% |
| $183 | $184 | 101% | $184 | 101% |
| October/December Price Range | ||||