USDA cut the estimate of the 2024 Brazilian soybean crop by four million tonnes this month due to dry weather early in the production cycle. Late rains appear to have stabilized Brazilian 2024 soybean production prospects. The accompanying chart displays Read more
This month the USDA forecast the 2023/24 crop year US soybean carryout at 280 million bushels or about 7% of crop year usage. Based on the soybean inflation adjusted price-carryout function over the last 50 years, a carryout of 280 Read more
USDA is scheduled to publish results of the January US cattle survey on January 31,2024. We estimate the January 1 herd numbered less than 88 million head, down 2% on a year over year basis Our estimates assume the USDA’s Read more
In the 30 years ending with the 2022/23 corn crop year 80% of the variation in the May corn winter/spring Price range was associated with the US corn carryout stocks to usage ratio and the Livestock price index as published Read more
The USDA’s November 2023 US feedlot survey reported cattlemen placed 2% fewer feeder cattle then in the same month a year ago. Finished cattle marketings in November declined 7% year over year leaving cattle on feed December 1, 2023 up Read more
USDA’ December Hog census estimated the total US herd on December 1, 2023 at 75 million head which was equal to the revised data from a year ago. The number of hogs kept for breeding was down 2% from a Read more
Earlier this monthUSDA forecast live finished cattle would average $178/hundredweight in 2024 compared to $176 in 2023. USDA dropped the 2024 price forecast by $7/Cwt. between the November and December forecast based on an increase in the 2024 US beef Read more
USDA cut the 2024 soybean production forecast due to warmer and drier weather in the Northern row crop areas. It would be unusual if USDA would reduce the production estimate again as there is a strong El Nino event underway Read more
The December 1 US hog herd Inventory likely declined compared to a year earlier. The accompanying balance table displays estimates for the fall pig crop compared to slaughter which is by now known from daily data. The September November pig Read more
Last month USDA forecast the season 2023/2024 average price for deliverable soybean oil at $61 per hundredweight compared to $69 last season and $65 in September 2021/August 2022. The accompanying scatter studies display the winter/spring high and low for deliverable Read more
USDA has projected a modest increase in US pork production in 2024. An increase in US pork exports would absorb about half of the increase in projected pork production based on the USDA’s US pork supply/usage balance published in early Read more
This month USDA forecast a two pound decline in the per capita 2024 US beef supply based on the production/usage data presented in the accompanying table. Of course the key number in the table is beef production which USDA expects Read more
Historically, the November/September soybean spread has been closely correlated with the expected US soybean carryout (September 1 stocks). In the November WASDE report USDA forecast the 2024 US soybean carryout at 245 million bushels or just short of 6% of Read more
USDA prepares farm level cash hog price forecasts each month. The accompanying scatter studies display the winter early spring April lean hog futures price range as a function of the winter-spring farm level cash hog value. The red point marked Read more
Cattle on feed November 1, 2023 neared the record large set in November 2020 despite scarce feeder cattle supplies. Reduced finished cattle marketing and placing a larger share of available feeder cattle kept the on feedlot population surprisingly large last Read more
In the November 2023 WASDE report USDA estimated the US wheat 2023/2024 crop year carryout stock at 684 million bushels, a 100 million bushel increase from a year ago, but still smaller than in the 2020/21 and 2021/22 crop years. Read more
The USDA forecast the per capita domestic pork supply for the first quarter of 2024 at 16.7 pounds, down 2% from a year ago. USDA expects first quarter pork production to be equal to a year ago, but a modest Read more
Historically the price range for March soybean meal has been associated with the US soybean supply usage balance and export demand for soybean meal. We have derived two equations expressing the price range for March Soybean meal as a function Read more
USDA has forecast 2023/24 crop year soybean exports at 1.775 billion bushels which is at the low end of recent year’s exports. The expectation of a large South American Soybean crop (to be harvested during the early Northern Hemisphere spring) Read more
USDA increased the estimate for 2023/2024 crop year US corn exports by 50 million bushels to 2075 million bushes this month. The US had sold 20 million tonnes of corn for new crop delivery by November 3, 2023 which is Read more