Commercial hog slaughter in the second half of 2020 will total a record 69 million head assuming the March hogs and Pigs data and USDA’s March estimates. Ample hog supplies and strong pork export demand will likely keep the pork Read more…
Corn feed use may be moderately stronger than USDA assumed in the March WASDE report. USDA estimates grain consuming animal units (GCAU) will average a two percent increase in 2019/2020 which points to a 300 million bushel plus increase in Read more…
The pace of US soybean export sales has fallen below that needed to make the USDA’S March estimate of 1825 million bushels. U.S. soybean exporters will face stiff competition from a record South American soybean crop through the remainder Read more…
USDA reported a four percent increase in US hog numbers on farms March 1. The hog industry was more productive in the second half of 2019 than had been reported in December. The second half of 2019 pig crop was Read more…
U.S. corn exports sales for the current quarter totaled 1.2 billion bushels, down from 1.7 billion bushels at the same time a year ago. Spring/summer corn export sales will likely pick up compared to the slow first half pace, but Read more…
Pork cutout values have shown exceptional strength through the recent economic turmoil. Strong export demand and seasonal factors in the domestic market have boosted pork prices. Also, pork consumption is home based more so than beef and broilers which depend Read more…
Broiler production has increased sharply this year. Broiler type chick hatch increases in most years but has been given an extra boost by strong export demand. Broilers are the leading consumers of soybean meal. In effect the U.S. is exporting Read more…
We use a model that forecasts corn price (Central Illinois) ) based on corn carryout stocks and food, seed and industrial corn usage. The model calculates a spring early price range of $4.03 to $4.42 assuming the March USDA old Read more…
The panic of 2020 has agricultural commodities trading low on the traditional economic value studies. The accompanying scatter plots the average feeder cattle price in the second quarter as a function the feeder cattle supply on January first. Currently futures Read more…
The USDA estimated the combined 2020 Brazil- Argentina corn crop corn crop at 151 million tonnes (5.9 billion bushels) this month which compares to 152 million tonnes (a rounded six billion bushels) a year ago. Combined exports were forecast Read more…
This winter’s break in fat cattle prices could provide a buying opportunity in spring live cattle futures assuming this month’s beef supply/usage estimates from USDA. The accompanying scatter study plots the April/June average price for finished steers in the Midwest Read more…
The USDA increased both the Argentine and Brazilian soybean crop estimates by one million tonnes this month. We have found that the Brazilian estimate has increased from the March forecast into the austral fall in most years in which the Read more…
The USDA did not make any changes to the U.S supply/Usage balance estimate this month. The old crop carryout to stocks ratio is estimated at 43% compared to 53% last year. The accompanying scatter study plots the March/June high for Read more…
U.S. pork export sales have doubled this year to date with sales to China the principal destination. China’s swine herd was decimated by swine fever. China’s sow inventory is recovering but it will take some time for slaughter numbers to Read more…
We estimate the March 1 hog inventory at 69 million head compared to 68 million head a year ago. Our estimate assumes the USDA December/February sows farrowing forecast published in December and a trend estimate for pigs per litter. The Read more…
The USDA has scheduled the release of the March planting survey for March 3,.2020. We have developed a model for the March soybean survey based on the harvest to early spring price of soybeans, corn and soybean area the previous Read more…
The USDA is scheduled to release the first corn area estimate of the season based on March intentions on March 31, 2020. We have developed a model which uses harvest to late winter price for Midwest corn and soybeans plus Read more…
The corm market has been balanced between reduced supplies and weak export demand. The USDA estimates the U.S. corn carryout this fall at 1.9 billion bushels which is down from a year ago but not tight by historical standards. Foreign Read more…
There were 11.8 million head of cattle on feed February first, on the high side of recent history. The USDA has forecast a 2% year over year increase in U.S. beef production in 2020. Aggregating USDA’s production, trade and population Read more…
Cash soybeans (Central Ill.) appear to have potential for a spring rally. The accompanying scatter studies display the highs and lows for cash soybeans as a function of a model forecast. The model uses the US soybean carryout and soybean Read more…