USDA Is scheduled to release the first U.S. corn supply usage balance of the 2020/2021 season in May. The May first balance estimates of the season are based on the March planting intention survey and the prevailing economic situation in Read more
USDA Is scheduled to release the first U.S. soybean supply usage balance of the 20/21 season in May. The first balance estimates of the season are based on the March planting intention survey forecast and the size of the old Read more
Midwest farmers got field work underway with slightly wetter than normal soils but much better conditions than a year ago.
We have scattered the Deliverable hog prices as a function of domestic per capita pork supply for the spring and summer period. The points for 2020 are based on the USDA’ April 2020 report forecast and current futures quotes. The Read more
The rating for winter wheat declined this week to 57% good or excellent compared to 62% a week ago and also 62% in mid April 2019. Corn planting was reported at 7% complete compared to the five year average Read more
The USDA is scheduled to release the March Cattle On feed report on April 24. We estimate cattle placements last month at 1.95 million head compared to 2.01 million head in March 2019. Our marketing estimate for March is 1.85 Read more
Feeder cattle are trading well below levels established in recent years. Feeder cattle are a residual claimant with bids based on the anticipated revenue from fat cattle and the cost of feed to finish cattle. Finished cattle have declined roughly Read more
Deliverable hogs prices are at the recent five year low, but remain well above the all time low of $18/cwt in he 1995-2020 period. Large hog supplies and a leftward shift in domestic pork demand has pressured deliverable values. Seasonally Read more
The accompanying scatter study shows the April/June monthly high for corn prices as a function of the ratio of US corn carryout stocks to crop year corn food and industrial plus exports. The data is from the USDA April World Read more
The USDA Rated 62% of the winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on the 2nd week of April 2020 compared to the five year average for that date of 48%. The graph displays the US winter wheat yield Read more
A sharp leftward shift in the corn ethanol demand function pulled the bottom out of the corn market this spring. A collapse in the crude oil market and a reduction in overall fuel demand from stay at home drivers cut Read more
The USDA cut the 2019/20 soybean export estimate this month but increased the crush assessment. Competition from the big South American soybean crop is reducing old export prospects. U.S. soybean processors have benefited from increased soybean meal disappearance and stronger Read more
Live cattle futures are trading at a sharp discount to what would be expected from 1) the USDA’s April beef supply estimates and 2) the beef supply – live price function established in the period of 2000 through 2019. The Read more
The USDA increased the 2020 pork production estimate again this month. Hog farms were more productive in the last half of 2019 and early 2020 than had been expected from the December Hogs and Pigs report. The March 2020 survey Read more
The USDA cut the estimate for corn used to make fuel in 2019/2020 by just under 400 million bushels this month. The ethanol industry has been hit hard this spring because of falling crude oil prices and a reduction in Read more
The USDA dropped both the Argentine and Brazilian soybean estimates this month. Dry weather late in the growing season resulted in yield expectations still at trend level but falling short of the above trend outlook published a month ago. In Read more
The USDA Rated 62% of the U.S. wheat crop in good or excellent condition on April 5 which is an improvement over the 52% rated at good/excellent prior to dormancy. In the period 1988 through 2019 USDA rated an average Read more
The March planting intentions survey reported 30. 8 million acres seeded to winter wheat was about the same as found in the winter 2020 survey. Farmers intend to plant 13.9 million acres to spring wheat in 2020 which is down Read more
The USDA’s March survey put the area planted to soybeans in 2020 at 83.5 million acres which would be up sharply from a year ago, but under the average area planted in the years of 2017 through 2018.. The R2 Read more
The USDA’s March survey put the area planted to corn in 2020 at just under 97 million acres which would be slightly short of the record established in 2012. The R2 between the March survey and the final area estimate Read more