The USDA is scheduled to release the April Cattle of Feed data May 22, 2020. We estimate the on feed inventory at 11 million head which is down from 11.8 million head a year ago. Although fewer cattle were on Read more
The USDA cut the 2020 Pork production estimate this month the result of plant closures as finished hog supplies remain plentiful. Hog processing appears to have turned the corner suggesting USDA’s production cut for 2020 could prove overly pessimistic. Read more
USDA cut the 2020 US beef production estimate through the summer because of processing plant closures. The chart shows the changes on an annual basis. In April and the first half of May beef production dropped roughly 20% because Read more
The USDA has forecast the new crop U.S. wheat carryout at 906 million bushels compared to 978 million bushels this season. The USDA’s wheat production forecast seems fair. The winter crop is close to being made, but the spring crop Read more
The highlight of the WAOB May corn reports was a very large new crop US corn carryout stocks forecast. The March planting survey had farmers increasing corn planted area this season so traders had anticipated a burdensome corn supply outlook Read more
The USDA increased the old crop soybean carryout this month due to weaker than expected export demand. Otherwise the old crop balance was unchanged. The new crop carryout was projected at 400 million bushels which we judge as neither burdensome Read more
The winter wheat crop was rated 53% good to excellent this week which was down from 55% last week, but still exceeds the 33 year average of 49%. The USDA will release the first US winter estimate of the season Read more
U.S. Soybean meal export sales totaled 10.5 million short tons (for 2019/2020 delivery) in early May which was off from 11.4 million tons at the same time year ago. We have scattered crop year exports using Early May sales as Read more
The USDA has scheduled release of the May winter wheat estimate for May 12. In an earlier post we forecast the winter wheat crop at 1234 million bushels and we will maintain that estimate as conditions have not changed radically. Read more
Ethanol prices and corn processing margins have stabilized in the past week, but ethanol is still trading at a substantial premium to gasoline. Corn used as fuel feed-stock dropped off in March and weekly data reveals the negative trend Read more
Hog futures prices have been on the uptrend the past week as traders anticipate huge margins will induce the reopening of pork processing plants. Hog futures prices remain well behind the pork cutout value, but that gap will close Read more
U.S. pork export sales remain strong with roughly two thirds of the year over year increase attributed to China. Export sales are squeezing out domestic consumers as about 40 percent of the pork processing capacity is closed due to the Read more
The wheat (SRW) corn price spread has moved to the upper level of historical experience ignoring the spike that occurred in the 2007/2008 crop year. The drop in corn used as fuel stocks and the prospect of a burdensome new Read more
The urgency of getting beef packing plants back on line is illustrated by graphing packer margins over the past few months. The beef industry will become increasingly distorted if farmers and ranchers are not allowed access to now shuttered packing Read more
The value of corn has lost on the value of soybeans this spring. The reduction in demand for corn as fuel stock and the expectation of a surplus in new crop corn supplies has weighed on corn prices. Both Read more
The USDA Rated 54% of the winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition in the fourth week of April 2020 compared to the five year average for that date of 51%. The graph displays the US winter wheat Read more
Our calculations suggest a feeder cattle supply on April 1 of 20.2 million head compared to 19.7 million head a year ago. Historically the feeder cattle supply has proved a useful barometer of feeder prices in the May July period. Read more
Cattle feedlot placements dropped sharply last month while March marketings increased leaving a big drop in the number of cattle on feed April 1, 2020. First quarter placements were the fewest since 2015 while marketings during the January/March period Read more
The USDA’s first new crop wheat supply/usage balance, scheduled for release next month, could post a small reduction in US wheat carryout stocks in 2020/2021. Our new crop wheat production forecast is based on the March planting survey and a Read more
Pork export sales (namely to China) remain brisk at the same time the closure of processing plants has tightened U.S. pork supplies. Processors need to find a way to reopen plants and take advantage of strong pork demand and plentiful Read more