The soybean crush margin has improved sharply this fall as bull markets in products have increased processor revenue while the arrival of new crop soybeans held down raw product costs. Favorable margins could boost the 2020/2021 soybean crush level in Read more
We estimate cattle on feed November 1 . 2020 at over 12 million head which would be a record for the date. Ample finished cattle supplies could keep a lid on cattle prices despite bull markets in the grains and Read more
U.S. corn export sales totaled more than 1.3 billion bushels in late October which was a record for the date. We have scattered crop year corn exports as a function of late October sales. The point in red is this Read more
The 2021 winter wheat crop has gotten off to a poor start with 43% of the crop rated in good or excellent condition compared to 67% last year and the 25 year average of 58%.
USDA reported the number of cattle on feed October 1 increased 4% from a year ago and was record high for the date. Cattle marketings, placements, and non fed steer-heifer slaughter all returned to normal activity after the disruption Read more
This month the USDA forecast cash soybean meal price for the 2020/2021 season at $335/ton. We have scattered the historic October/May highs for central Illinois meal versus the USDA estimate. Note the scatter suggests a potential high between $400 and Read more
Domestic soybean meal consumption is a function of High Protein Consuming Animal Units and the price of soybean meal. The HPCAU index and meal price account for 87% of the variation in meal consumption over the period 1980 through 2020. Read more
This month USDA forecast 2020/2021 U.S. feed residual usage at 5775 million bushels compared to 5827 million bushels a year ago. Feed/residual usage is a function of animal numbers, expressed as grain consuming animal units, and the cost of corn Read more
The USDA is scheduled to release the September Cattle of Feed data October 23, 2020. We estimate the on feed inventory at 11.6 million head which is up 3% from a year ago and a record high for the date. Read more
The USDA provided quarterly Pork production and demand estimates for the next year in the October WAOB report. We have expressed the aggregate supply estimates as per capita domestic Pork supply for the period October 2020 through September 2021 and Read more
The USDA forecast the average soybean to the farmer at $9.80 during the 2020/21 season compared to $8.55 last season. To put the price forecast in perspective we set the average farm price as a function of the carryout to Read more
The USDA provided quarterly beef production and price estimates for the next year in the October WAOB report. We have expressed the aggregate supply estimates as per capita domestic beef supply for the period October 2020 through September 2021 and Read more
USDA cut the new crop (2020/21) U.S. corn carryout this month in line with a small U.S. corn crop estimate. USDA also cut Feed and industrial usage. We have prepared a chart displaying the ratio of the October estimate stocks Read more
The USDA dropped the new crop U.S. soybean carryout estimate to 290 million bushels. Expressed as a ratio of carryout to crop year usage (excluding residual) the projection would be the tightest since 2014 (2013/2014 crop year) when cash soybeans Read more
The accompanying charts depict commercial hog slaughter during the October/December 2020 and January/March 2021 quarters with forecasts based on the original pig crop data for May/March and June/August quarters. The model statistics are included in the charts. Just a few Read more
The U.S. had sold 1.5 billion bushels of soybeans as of early October compared to slightly less than 600 million bushels at the same time last year. China has been the driving force behind the surge in sales. The accompanying Read more
The accompanying scatter study displays the winter through spring high for soft red wheat in Chicago as a function of U.S. wheat carryout stocks as a % of crop year food use and exports. China, in the past a minor Read more
The accompanying scatter study displays the high for central Illinois soybeans as a function of the new crop soybean carryout as a percent of usage excluding residual. Working the recent stocks data through USDA’s September S/D balance results in a Read more
The cut in the old crop corn carryout estimate this week has pushed the new crop corn balance further into the volatile range. The accompanying scatters display the highs and lows for central Illinois corn as a function of the Read more
The USDA estimated the March/August 2020 pig crop at 70 million head which was down 1% from a year earlier. Based on the pig crop and projected imports we forecast the October 2020/March 2021 at 66 million head which is Read more