Livestock
Finished Cattle Sales to Decline – 01/26/2022
Fat cattle marketings are likely to drop below the year earlier level during the first half of 2022. Our forecast is based on feeder cattle placements in the last half of 2021.
Grains
US Wheat Export Sales Weak – 01/24/2022
US wheat export sales totaled less than 17 million metric tons (tonnes) in mid January 2022, the second lowest total in the last 30 years. In large part scarce sales reflect the limited quantity of US wheat available for export Read more
Grains
Midwest Corn Price Winter/Spring Highs and Lows – 1/18/2022
In the January WASDE Report the USDA forecast the 2021/2022 US corn crop year carryout at 1.54 billion bushels based on US crop year corn usage of 14.8 billion bushels. The USDA carryout to crop year ratio would calculate to Read more
Grains
Corn Export Sales on Trajectory to hit USDA Target – 01/17/2022
US corn export sales (old and new crop) totaled 2.3 billion bushels as of 1/6/2022 which, based on historical experience, is on course to meet the USDA’s 2021/2022 crop year forecast of 2.4 billion bushels. The historical experience (1991-2021) is Read more
Grains
South American Corn Yields – 01/14/2022
USDA cut the forecast for both the 2022 Argentine and Brazilian corn crops this month. However both forecasts remain very close to trend. The January estimates appear optimistic in light of the dry weather in the early season, especially in Read more
Soybean Complex
Soybean Crush Margin Tops $4.00 – 01/14/2022
The central Illinois soybean crush margin has exceeded the past 30 year highs this week averaging more than $4/bushel. Strong demand for both soybean meal and oil have supported the crush margin. The soybean crop development in South America will Read more
Soybean Complex
Soybean Economic Value Studies – 01/13/2022
This month USDA forecast the 2021/2022 crop year US soybean carryout at 350 million bushels or 8.1% of usage (crush, exports and seed). The accompanying scatter studies display the January – May high and lows for cash soybeans (Central Illinois) Read more
Soybean Complex
Observation on the Brazilian Soybean Crop – 01/07/2021
Dry weather in the Southern half of the Brazilian row crop area will likely result in a soybean crop smaller than the 144 million tonne (5.3 billion bushels) crop USDA forecast last month. We performed a what if analysis and Read more
Soybean Complex
Argentine Soybean Crop Will likely fall short of the USDA December Estimate – 01/05/21
Dry weather appears to be damaging the new Argentine soybean crop. Last month USDA forecast the crop at 49.5 million tonnes or about 1.8 billion bushels. A what if analysis based on the 2011/2012 austral crop year would put the Read more
Livestock
January 1 Cattle Inventory – 01/04/2022
The long term downward trend in the US cattle inventory likely continued during the second half of 2021. We estimate the US cattle herd on January 1, 2022 totaled 92 million head compared to 93.6 million head at the same Read more
Grains
“What If” Brazilian Drought impact on Corn Price – 12/27/2021
The USDA had assumed a substantial increase in both Brazilian corn production and exports this season. Dry weather could significantly change the Brazilian corn outlook and tighten the US corn supply. We have assumed a 10 million tonne switch from Read more
Livestock
Cattle on feed and Marketing Projection – 12/24/2021
USDA reported year over year increases in both feeder cattle placements and finished cattle marketings last month. Based on cattle on feed data we project a 4% drop in fat cattle sales during the December 2021 through May 2022 period.
Livestock
Market Hog Data and Barrow and Gilt Slaughter in the First Half of 2022
The USDA reported a 5% year over year drop in the number of hogs kept for market on December 1, 2021. Based on original historical data the reported inventory would result in a January/June 2022 FIS barrow and gilt slaughter Read more
Soybean Complex
Drought could Impact Brazilian Soybean Crop – 12/22/2021
Warmer and drier than normal weather is negatively impacting the Brazilian soybean crop. Earlier this month the USDA maintained a trend yield forecast for the new Brazilian crop of 144 million tonnes or 3.56 tonnes per hectare. As a what Read more
Livestock
Cattle on Feed – November 2021
Finished cattle prices have risen sharply over the last year, but cattle feedlot profitability has been eroded by rising feed costs. The finished steer/corn price ratio currently is about the same as in mid December 2020. Feeder cattle replacement cost Read more
Soybean Complex
Soybean Crush Margin Supporting Force – 12/03/2021
Soybean crush margins this Autumn have averaged more than $1.00 per bushel better than in the two previous years. Strong demand for both products, but especially for soybean oil, has benefited soybean crushers. Wide margins spur the soybean crush and Read more
Livestock
Winter Barrow & Gilt Marketings Forecast Down Sharply – 11/30/2021
We forecast winter B&G slaughter at 31.6 million head which would be down 8% from the previous year. Our estimate is based on original pig crop data supplied by USDA in September. Pork demand in early 2022 will shift to Read more
Soybean Complex
Soybean Economic Value and Discussion – 11/26/2021
In the November 2021 WASDE report the USDA forecast the 2021/2022 US soybean carryout at 340 million bushels or 8% of crop year usage (excluding residual). The accompanying scatter studies plot the winter and early spring high and low for Read more
Livestock
US Hog Inventory Likely Smallest in Four Years – 11/22/2021
We calculate the US hog inventory on December 1, 2021 at 74 million head which would be the smallest hog census for that date since 2017. High feed costs and market uncertainty have so far blunted the upswing in the Read more
Livestock
Cattle on Feed Down Modestly From A Year Ago – 11/19/2021
USDA reported the number of cattle in US feedlots on November 1, 2021 was down fractionally from a year ago. Finished cattle sales declined last month while October 2021 feeder cattle placements increased from levels in the corresponding month in Read more