We forecast winter B&G slaughter at 31.6 million head which would be down 8% from the previous year. Our estimate is based on original pig crop data supplied by USDA in September. Pork demand in early 2022 will shift to Read more…
In the November 2021 WASDE report the USDA forecast the 2021/2022 US soybean carryout at 340 million bushels or 8% of crop year usage (excluding residual). The accompanying scatter studies plot the winter and early spring high and low for Read more…
We calculate the US hog inventory on December 1, 2021 at 74 million head which would be the smallest hog census for that date since 2017. High feed costs and market uncertainty have so far blunted the upswing in the Read more…
USDA reported the number of cattle in US feedlots on November 1, 2021 was down fractionally from a year ago. Finished cattle sales declined last month while October 2021 feeder cattle placements increased from levels in the corresponding month in Read more…
The US had sold 1.27 billion bushels of soybeans by mid November compared to 1.9 billion bushels at the same time the previous year. Mid November soybean sales to China totaled less than 700 million bushels compared to more than Read more…
This month USDA estimated the US soybean carryout for the 2021/2022 crop year at 340 million bushels or 8% of crop year usage (excluding residual). We have scattered the October/May high for Midwest soybean meal as a function of the Read more…
One factor that has supported finished cattle prices in recent months has been a sharp increase in the value of by-products (principally hides). The beef by product value has increased $20+ /cwt over the last 18 months boosting live cattle Read more…
The USDA reported 81% of the US winter wheat crop had emerged by mid November which is close to the historical average. USDA rated 46% of the crop in good or excellent condition as of November 14, 2021 which is Read more…
The USDA forecast the domestic per capita pork supply in 2022 at 49.9 pounds compared to the 50.7 pound estimate for 2021. High grain prices could stall an upturn in the hog cycle for the next calendar year. The December Read more…
The USDA rated 45% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on 11/07/21 which is well below the recent 25-year average of 57%. The final US winter wheat yield is only roughly correlated with fall ratings Read more…
In the November Wasde report USDA forecast the 2022 US corn carryout at 1.5 billion bushels or 10% of 2021/2022 crop year usage. We have scattered the winter high and low for central Illinois corn as a function of the Read more…
USDA reported cattle on feed October 1 totaled 11.5 million head compared to 11.7 million head a year ago. Placements over the last six months suggests finished cattle marketings in the October 2021 through March 2022 period will fall fractionally Read more…
In the week ending 10/21/2021 the USDA calculated the Central Illinois soybean crush margin at $3.87/bushel, well in excess of the recent 4 year average $2.00 per bushel. Strong demand for biodiesel has been a major force supporting soybean oil Read more…
In the October WAOB report the USDA forecast the average soybean meal price for the 2021/2022 crop year at $325 per short ton. The accompanying scatter studies plot the high and low monthly values for soybean meal as a function Read more…
China soybean imports account for about a third of the combined U.S., Brazilian, and Argentine soybean crops. Chinese soybean demand is a linear function of Chinese soybean meal demand as China’s domestic soybean production variability is small compared to the Read more…
The USDA has forecast a two pound drop in the domestic per capita beef supply in 2022. Beef production is forecast to drop three percent next year compared to production in 2021. Net beef exports are forecast to decline 100 Read more…
USDA increased the new crop US corn carryout to 1.5 billion bushels this month from 1.4 billion bushels in September. The corn carryout to crop year usage (excluding feed usage) ratio would calculate to 16% based on the October data Read more…
USDA increased the new crop soybean US soybean carryout forecast this month to 320 million bushels from 185 million bushels in September. The soybean carryout to crop year usage ratio would calculate to 7% based on the October data compared Read more…
In the Small Grains report The USDA reduced the 2021 US wheat production estimate to 1646 million bushels from the August estimate of 1697 million bushels. USDA also published the quarterly wheat stocks (September 1) showing a total of 1780 Read more…
USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report put the 2020/2021 US soybean carryout at 256 million bushels, up from the September WAOB estimate of 175 million bushels. We have also calculated a what if new crop 2021/2022 US soybean balance balance assuming Read more…