This month the USDA forecast corn feed/residual usage at 5.65 billion bushels. The accompanying scatter study displays the historical corn feed per GCAU as a function of farm level corn price. Note that the USDA corn feed/residual estimate is on Read more
USDA cut the South American (Brazil. Argentina, Paraguay) this month by 10 million tonnes or 350 million bushels. The crop is now forecast to fall well below the year earlier level. Most of the deficit will be filled by US Read more
US soybean sales increased to 60 plus million tonnes in the period ending March 3, 2022 which is the second fastest pace after last season when Chinese soybeans purchases exceeded the historical pace. China has been buying new crop US Read more
A sharp increase in production costs could limit US planted acreage this spring, but does advantage soybeans relative to corn because corn cultivation requires more energy. We have constructed a table displaying major farm input costs in Iowa as of Read more
We calculate the March 1,2022 US hog inventory at 73.8 million head, down slightly from a year ago. Our balance table assumes that farmers followed through with the December/February farrowing intentions expressed in the December 2022 survey and that the Read more
The USDA reported the number of cattle on feed last month was a record level for a February 1 while January net cattle placements declined two percent year over year. January finished cattle marketings declined three percent compared to the Read more
The US new crop (September 2022/August 2023)soybean carryout would not change much from the old crop February 2022 estimate based on USDA’s trend line forecasts. USDA has soybean planted area less than half million acres larger in 2022 than that Read more
The US corn carryout would increase modestly next season (September 2022/August2023) based on the USDA’s latest trendline projections. USDA calculates the normal weather trend corn yield for 2022 at 181 bushels per harvested acre. We calculate the trend corn yield Read more
USDA’s current wheat projections suggest a modest build up in US wheat carryout stocks over the 2022/2023 crop year. USDA is counting on a return to trend wheat yield after a sub par year in 2021. USDA is also assuming Read more
Cattle futures prices are trading $8.00 premium to the USDA’s February forecast for finished steers through the end of 2022. The accompanying scatter studies display the historic high and low monthly average for Midwest finished steers as a function of Read more
USDA trimmed the 2021/2022 crop year US soybean carryout forecast this month to 325 million bushels from the 350 million bushels expected last month More importantly USDA also cut the South American 2022 soybean forecast to 185 million tonnes from Read more
The USDA has cut both the Argentine and Brazilian Soybean production forecasts the two months reflecting poor growing conditions during early austral growing season. In the period from 1986 through 2021, USDA has further reduced the Argentine soybean production forecast Read more
The US corn balance could tighten through the remainder of the crop year. US corn exports will likely benefit from smaller South American corn crops than USDA assumed last month. The use of corn in ethanol production may also increase. Read more
USDA is likely to tighten the US soybean supply/usage forecast this month because of a smaller than expected soybean crop in South America. We have prepared a soybean balance with a what if assumption compared to the January USDA estimate. Read more
The USDA’s January 1 US Cattle Inventory survey resulted in calculated feeder cattle supply of 25.5 million head, down 700 thousand head from a year ago. The accompanying table displays the derivation of the January 1 feeder supply. We have Read more
US corn planted area could decline this spring based on the historical response to the soybean/corn price ratio during harvest through the early spring period. We calculate the current ratio at 2.7 which is modestly above the recent thirty year Read more
US farmers are projected to increase the area devoted to soybeans this spring considering —- … The soybean corn price ratio is above the midpoint of the past 30 year range. … The cost of diesel fuel and nitrogen fertilizer Read more
Fat cattle prices (basis the Midwest) are trading very close to the USDA first quarter forecast of $139/hundredweight. USDA has the live cattle value trading the low to mid $130’s range through the late summer then advancing into the Autumn. Read more
US soybean export sales had totaled 45 million tonnes by mid January 2022 which was down from a year ago but near the recent uptrend. The reduced sales from a year ago was due to the limited activity of China Read more
US coarse grain sales in mid January totaled 52 million tonnes down from a year ago , but on the upper side of commitments at the same time in most of the last 30 years. The quantity of corn available Read more