August feeder cattle values have displayed a seasonal tendency to advance from Mid May into the June August period. The summer price seasonal has been reinforced in years in which US cattle inventories on July 1 were less than the Read more
August hogs are trading near the bottom of the recent trading range. Summer hog futures are correlated with the March lightweight hog inventory as expressed in the USDA’s March hog census. The accompanying scatter studies display the change in the Read more
June live cattle could struggle through expiration even though the contract is already trading at a discount to the cash market. The USDA has forecast the average price for cash finished cattle this quarter at $139 which, based on historical Read more
Soybean oil values hit new all time highs last week on news Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil exporter, would restrict palm oil export sales to limit domestic food inflation. The three year bull market in soybean oil has resulted Read more
March 2022 Cattle feedlot placements declined modestly last month but remained at a relatively high level compared with same month data published in recent years. Finished cattle marketings also declined fractionally on a year over year basis. Live (finished) cattle Read more
Soybean export sales hit a record 67 million tonnes on 04/14/2022 thanks to Chinese purchases of new crop soybeans. A short soybean crop in South America has boosted US soybean export sales. USDA will likely boost old crop US soybean Read more
The USDA rated just 30% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on 04/17/2022 which is near the bottom of mid April ratings over the last 30+ years of available mid April data. We forecast the Read more
The March planted area survey found US farmers planning to cut planted area in favor of other row crops. The corn market has been on a mission to both ration old crop corn supplies and induce farmers to plant more Read more
The new crop US wheat carryout could remain near minimum pipeline levels based on currently available data. The poor state of the US winter wheat crop suggests the total US wheat yield in 2022 will fall below trend even if Read more
US corn supplies will be tight again next crop year unless 1) high prices draw out more acres than indicated in the March survey, 2) the national average corn yield is well above that projected by USDA or 3) bigger Read more
USDA rated just 30% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on 4/3/2022 which compares to the 30 year average for that date of 52% of the crop rated in good/excellent condition. The early April index Read more
USDA estimates a 700 thousand acre increase in area planted to wheat this year, but area harvested will likely increase by nearly double planted area because a poor season greatly reduced spring wheat area harvested in 2021. We have worked Read more
The USDA’s March survey found US farmers planning the fewest corn area this spring since 2018. The USDA’s trend line US corn area, yield & trend line usage forecasts suggest a modest reduction of already tight US corn stocks during Read more
USDA’s March survey found US farmers intending to plant a record area to soybeans this spring. Working through the 2022/2023 US soybean supply/usage table using, USDA’s trend forecasts provided last month and the March planted area estimate would suggest a Read more
The Spring US hog inventory declined a little more than 2% on a year over year basis according to the latest Hogs and Pigs survey.We estimate April/September finished hog sales will decline 1% from slaughter during the same time a Read more
Steer prices showed little impact from inflation in the first two decades of the 21st century as general price upward creep was very slow. But the recent surge in inflation has begun to impact cattle prices more robustly. The accompanying Read more
Feeder cattle placements and finished cattle sales both increased on a year over year basis last month. Cattle on feed March 1 totaled 12.1 million head which exceeded the previous year by just one percent. We forecast cattle marketings over Read more
USDA has increased the forecast for 2022 beef production in recent months, but beef output is still expected to fall short year over year during the last three quarters (April- December) of the forecast period. The more optimistic beef production Read more
USDA has steadily lowered US pork production estimates for 2022 since trend projections were published last spring. US pork production in 2022 is expected to fall short of year earlier level, but most of the decline occurred in the first Read more
The accompanying scatter studies displays the spring trading range for cash soybeans as a function of the US soybean carryout/crop year usage ratio as forecast by USDA in June. Currently cash soybeans are trading at an elevated level compared to Read more