The soybean crush margin is record wide due to strong soybean oil and meal demand. Soybean meal still accounts for a larger portion of the crush, but only by a small margin. Demand for soybean oil used in Bio Fuel Read more
This month USDA reduced the US corn production estimate by 48 million bushels. The November corn estimate has been less than the October estimate in 17 of 25 years in which USDA reduced the production estimate in October. The November Read more
Feedlots increased finish cattle sales 4% last month but reduced the number of cattle placed by 4% in September 2022. Finished cattle marketings over the next seven months will increase fractionally on a year over year basis based on COF Read more
USDA has projected a fractional year over year increase in US pork production in 2023 and a modest decline in net pork exports. The USDA’s current forecasts suggest a modest increase in the domestic per capita pork supply n 2023 Read more
The accompanying table displays a March Chicago wheat forecast range as anchored to March corn. We have adjusted wheat and corn prices to the 2022 price level based on the implicit GNP deflator. The Tables assume USDA’ s wheat supply/usage Read more
Bullish Soybean traders were disappointed as the September Quarterly Grain Stocks Report revealed the old crop soybean carryout was 34 million bushels larger than USDA estimated just a few weeks earlier. The increase in carryout creates a negative residual in Read more
The Quarterly grain stocks report estimated September 1 US corn stocks at 1.38 billion bushels, significantly less than the 1.53 billion bushels estimated in the last WASDE report. The difference implies old crop feed usage was stronger than expected and Read more
USDA reported the US hog herd was one million head fewer on September 1 2022, than one year ago and the fourth down year of the current hog inventory cycle. Market hogs on September 1 were off 1% an fraction Read more
In the September 2022 WASDE report USDA forecast the new crop US soybean carryout at 200 million bushels or 4.5% of usage which is very close to a minimum pipeline supply. The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest high and Read more
This month USDA forecast the new crop US corn carryout at 1.2 billion bushels or 13% of the estimate of Food Seed Industrial usage plus crop year US corn exports. The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest high and low for Read more
US hog numbers likely declined over the summer to 74 million head on September 1 compared to 75 million head a year ago. High feed costs have kept hog production on the decline since the last hog cycle peak in Read more
The US 2022 soybean growing season has come to a close with the weekly crop data supplied by USDA suggesting a modestly smaller crop than the August estimate. A model using the weekly good/excellent data from USDA forecasts a national Read more
The 2022 corn growing season has come to a close with the crop rated average based on data from the last thirty years. A model using the good-excellent rating for 8/28/2022 suggests a US national average corn yield of 174 Read more
December hogs are trading low on December corn based on historical data from 1997 through 2021.The current December hog/corn ratio reflects the deep discount for December Hogs compared to deliverable cash hogs. The market will likely correct the discrepancy by Read more
This week USDA assigned 59% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition which is slightly below both the previous week and previous year’s level. A regression study using weekly soybean crop data for the years 1985 through Read more
USDA rated 59% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of 07/24/2022 which is slightly under the 60% same week average for the previous 30 years. The historical crop index – soybean yield association would suggest Read more
The USDA reported 61% of the national corn crop in good or excellent condition on 07/24/2022 which is 3 points less than the previous 30-year average. A regression model using data on trend and the condition index forecasts the national Read more
Cattle feedlot managers sharply curtailed feeder cattle placements last month while increasing finished cattle sales. The number of cattle on feed July 1 remained fractionally larger than a year ago. High feed costs have discouraged cattle placements this year despite Read more
This week 71 % of the US spring wheat crop is in good or excellent condition which compares to just 11% in the same week a year ago the 25-year average of 63%. A model based on the mid July Read more
USDA rated 61% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition on July 17 which is close to the long term average. A model using the crop index and trend to project the national US soybean yield calculates Read more