Historically, the new crop (this year December 2023) old crop (July 2023) corn spread has been associated with the quantity of corn to be carried into the new crop year. This month the USDA forecast the 2022/2023 crop year US Read more…
USDA estimated area seeded to winter wheat last autumn (for harvest this summer) totaled 37 million acres compared to the 33 million acres sown in the fall of 2021. The 2023 winter wheat crop was in poor to fair condition Read more…
Historically, the new crop soybean (November 2023) – old crop soybean (July 2023) spread has been correlated with USDA’s January assessment of the old crop US soybean supply/usage balance. This month USDA forecast a 210 million bushel 2022/2023 crop year Read more…
Soybean crop development in Brazil and Argentina during the austral summer will likely hold traders’ attention through the next few months. USDA expects the combined crop in the Southern Hemisphere will be much larger than the 2022 US soybean crop. Read more…
The May Chicago wheat winter/spring price range is projected at a conservative $7 to $10 per bushel assuming USDA sticks to the old crop (2022/2023) US wheat supply/usage balance as forecast in the December 2022 WASDE report. We have scattered Read more…
We calculate the US cattle inventory declined 2+% this year., to the smallest herd since 2015. Favorable feeder cattle returns have drawn heifers into feedlots rather than rebuild the breeding herd. . The need to rebuild the US cattle herd Read more…
USDA reported the US hog herd inventory on December 1 was down 2% year over year and the smallest since 2016. The market hog inventory was also down 2% from a year ago. We have charted our forecast for first Read more…
Cattle net placements fell short of finished cattle sales in November 2022 which is unusual for the fall months. Cattle on feed data suggest a 5% decline in fat cattle marketings over the next six months.
We estimate December 1, 2022 US wheat stocks at 1.3 billion bushels compared to 1.4 billion bushels a year ago and the smallest stocks this century . The major unknown in the second quarter US wheat supply/usage balance calculation is Read more…
We estimate December 1, 2022 US corn stocks at 12.1 billion bushels compared to 11.5 billion bushels a year ago. The major unknown in the first quarter US corn supply/usage balance calculation is the feed residual for September/November. We have Read more…
April 2023 hog futures appear to have modest upside potential based on the USDA’s latest pork production forecast. April hog futures prices have displayed a 20% advantage to the upside from late December into the January/March period over the past Read more…
March soybean oil and March corn have maintained a close correlation over the past 50 years. Currently, soybean oil is trading on the high side of the price of corn. Both March soybean oil and March corn futures prices have Read more…
The outlook for a huge increase in South American soybean production is the major bearish force in the soybean complex futures market. We have charted the USDA’s December 2022 forecast for the 2022/2023 South American season. Important points include … Read more…
USDA has forecast a sharp reduction in US beef production in 2023 based on the reduction in cattle inventories that has been evident over the last three years. We have constructed a table displaying cattle slaughter and beef production by Read more…
We calculate the US hog inventory on December 1 at 73 million head which would be the smallest hog census for that date since 2016. High feed costs and market uncertainty have so far blunted a possible upturn in the Read more…
Feeder cattle placements continued a long term downtrend in November while finished cattle sales increased 1% in October compared to the same month a year ago. The balance left November 1 US cattle on feed at the lowest level in Read more…
This month USDA projected the 2022/2023 US soybean carryout at 200 million bushels compared to last year’s carryout November forecast of 205 million bushels and the final estimate for 2021/22 of 256 million bushels. The accompanying table displays high and Read more…
This month USDA forecast the US domestic pork supply would increase 2% year over year in the First quarter of 2023. The accompanying table displays the forecast price range for February hogs based on alternative pork supply assumptions relative to Read more…
This month USDA estimated the US soybean carryout for the 2022/2023 crop year at 220 million bushels or 5% of crop year usage (excluding residual). We have scattered the December/March high for March soybean meal as a function of the Read more…
Last month USDA forecast the 2022/2023 crop year US corn carryout at 1.17 billion bushels or 8% of crop year usage. In the last 50 years the US corn carryout to usage ratio has averaged 14%. Several factors suggest the Read more…