The USDA reported 61% of the national corn crop in good or excellent condition on 07/24/2022 which is 3 points less than the previous 30-year average. A regression model using data on trend and the condition index forecasts the national Read more…
Cattle feedlot managers sharply curtailed feeder cattle placements last month while increasing finished cattle sales. The number of cattle on feed July 1 remained fractionally larger than a year ago. High feed costs have discouraged cattle placements this year despite Read more…
This week 71 % of the US spring wheat crop is in good or excellent condition which compares to just 11% in the same week a year ago the 25-year average of 63%. A model based on the mid July Read more…
USDA rated 61% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition on July 17 which is close to the long term average. A model using the crop index and trend to project the national US soybean yield calculates Read more…
The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest high and low for December corn as a function of the US corn supply minus FSI and exports per GCAU (grain consuming animal units). The data is as expressed by USDA during harvest. Read more…
USDA rated 64% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition as of July 10, compared to the average 67% rating in the second week of July in the years 1985 through 2021. A rating of 64% is Read more…
US new crop wheat carryout stocks aren’t likely to vary much from the just completed crop year. The June Acreage report combined with the crop condition reports of late June suggest a total US wheat crop in 2022 of 1.78 Read more…
USDA’s June acreage survey found two million plus fewer soybean acres than was forecast by the March Report. Assuming the USDA’s trend yield projection, the 88 million acres planted (87 million harvested) to soybeans would produce a crop of 4.5 Read more…
The USDA’s June Acreage Survey put 2022 US corn planted area at 89.9 million acres compared to the March survey of 89.4 million and planted area in 2021 of 93.4 million acres. In the June WASDE report USDA projected the Read more…
USDA reported the nation’s hog herd was down 1% on a year over year basis on June 1. Hog producers have not shown much inclination to expand production despite record finished hog prices at farm level. High feed costs have Read more…
Feedlots placed fewer feeder cattle than finished cattle marketed last month, but total cattle on feed June 1 still exceeded that of any previous year. We project finished cattle sales in the June/December 2022 period will increase 2% on a Read more…
USDA rated 70% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition as of 6/19/2022 which is modestly above average. Data for the years 1988 through 2021 would suggest a national average yield of 181 bushels per harvested acre Read more…
This month the USDA forecast the domestic per capita beef supply in the second half of 2022 would total 41 pound, down from 42 pounds a year ago. We have scattered the second half price range for December cattle as Read more…
This month USDA forecast the new crop (2022-2023) US soybean carryout at 280 million bushels or six percent of crop year usage. The accompanying scatter studies display the summer/harvest high and low for November soybeans as a function of the Read more…
Historically, December corn summer-harvest values have been correlated with the US corn carryout as forecast by USDA in early harvest. In the June WASDE report USDA forecast the 2022/2023 (new crop) carryout at 1.4 billion bushels, or 15% of crop Read more…
Weekly data suggest only a minor change in the US winter wheat yield forecast this month. In May USDA forecast winter wheat planted area abandonment will be the largest since 2014. Not much of abandonment can actually be recovered, but Read more…
Feeder cattle prices could have considerable upside potential this summer, but only if farmers harvest a crop at least as large and preferably larger than USDA currently forecasts. As a residual claimant feeder cattle values closely follow feed grain values Read more…
On June 3, 2022 September soybeans closed 33 cents premium to November soybeans. Historically, the November – September spread has been a function of the US soybean carryover relative to crop year usage. The drought in South America last winter Read more…
September corn is trading about 10 cents per bushel premium to the December contract. Historically, the September/December corn spread has been a function of the US corn carryover. A tight US corn carryout supports the September versus the December corn Read more…
We calculate the US hog inventory on June 1, 2022 at 72 million head, down one million head year over year and six million fewer than the peak inventory (2020) for this cycle in 2020. Hog Balance Mar/May Million head Read more…