This month USDA projected the 2022/2023 US soybean carryout at 200 million bushels compared to last year’s carryout November forecast of 205 million bushels and the final estimate for 2021/22 of 256 million bushels. The accompanying table displays high and Read more…
This month USDA forecast the US domestic pork supply would increase 2% year over year in the First quarter of 2023. The accompanying table displays the forecast price range for February hogs based on alternative pork supply assumptions relative to Read more…
This month USDA estimated the US soybean carryout for the 2022/2023 crop year at 220 million bushels or 5% of crop year usage (excluding residual). We have scattered the December/March high for March soybean meal as a function of the Read more…
Last month USDA forecast the 2022/2023 crop year US corn carryout at 1.17 billion bushels or 8% of crop year usage. In the last 50 years the US corn carryout to usage ratio has averaged 14%. Several factors suggest the Read more…
The soybean crush margin is record wide due to strong soybean oil and meal demand. Soybean meal still accounts for a larger portion of the crush, but only by a small margin. Demand for soybean oil used in Bio Fuel Read more…
This month USDA reduced the US corn production estimate by 48 million bushels. The November corn estimate has been less than the October estimate in 17 of 25 years in which USDA reduced the production estimate in October. The November Read more…
Feedlots increased finish cattle sales 4% last month but reduced the number of cattle placed by 4% in September 2022. Finished cattle marketings over the next seven months will increase fractionally on a year over year basis based on COF Read more…
USDA has projected a fractional year over year increase in US pork production in 2023 and a modest decline in net pork exports. The USDA’s current forecasts suggest a modest increase in the domestic per capita pork supply n 2023 Read more…
The accompanying table displays a March Chicago wheat forecast range as anchored to March corn. We have adjusted wheat and corn prices to the 2022 price level based on the implicit GNP deflator. The Tables assume USDA’ s wheat supply/usage Read more…
Bullish Soybean traders were disappointed as the September Quarterly Grain Stocks Report revealed the old crop soybean carryout was 34 million bushels larger than USDA estimated just a few weeks earlier. The increase in carryout creates a negative residual in Read more…
The Quarterly grain stocks report estimated September 1 US corn stocks at 1.38 billion bushels, significantly less than the 1.53 billion bushels estimated in the last WASDE report. The difference implies old crop feed usage was stronger than expected and Read more…
USDA reported the US hog herd was one million head fewer on September 1 2022, than one year ago and the fourth down year of the current hog inventory cycle. Market hogs on September 1 were off 1% an fraction Read more…
In the September 2022 WASDE report USDA forecast the new crop US soybean carryout at 200 million bushels or 4.5% of usage which is very close to a minimum pipeline supply. The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest high and Read more…
This month USDA forecast the new crop US corn carryout at 1.2 billion bushels or 13% of the estimate of Food Seed Industrial usage plus crop year US corn exports. The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest high and low for Read more…
US hog numbers likely declined over the summer to 74 million head on September 1 compared to 75 million head a year ago. High feed costs have kept hog production on the decline since the last hog cycle peak in Read more…
The US 2022 soybean growing season has come to a close with the weekly crop data supplied by USDA suggesting a modestly smaller crop than the August estimate. A model using the weekly good/excellent data from USDA forecasts a national Read more…
The 2022 corn growing season has come to a close with the crop rated average based on data from the last thirty years. A model using the good-excellent rating for 8/28/2022 suggests a US national average corn yield of 174 Read more…
December hogs are trading low on December corn based on historical data from 1997 through 2021.The current December hog/corn ratio reflects the deep discount for December Hogs compared to deliverable cash hogs. The market will likely correct the discrepancy by Read more…
This week USDA assigned 59% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition which is slightly below both the previous week and previous year’s level. A regression study using weekly soybean crop data for the years 1985 through Read more…
USDA rated 59% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of 07/24/2022 which is slightly under the 60% same week average for the previous 30 years. The historical crop index – soybean yield association would suggest Read more…