The US new crop corn carryout will increase modestly assuming currently published USDA forecasts. The March planting intention survey forecast 2023 corn planted area at 92 million acres compared to 89 million acres in 2022. The March area forecast would Read more…
The USDA estimated area planted to all wheat will increase significantly this season, but the poor condition of the winter wheat crop signals a tight supply/demand balance during the 2023/2024 crop year. Based on mid April reports we estimate the Read more…
USDA rated just 27% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition as of 4/09/2023 which is the lowest rating for the comparable week since crop ratings were first published in the mid 1980’s. The rating would Read more…
USDA’s March planting intentions survey data signaled an increase in both winter wheat (planted last fall) , and spring wheat area. But early spring condition reports suggest only a modest year over year increase in US wheat production for the Read more…
USDA’s March planting survey found US farmers intending to plant about the same number of acres to soybeans as was seeded in 2022. The stated number of soybean acres would produce a US soybean crop of 4.4 billion bushels assuming Read more…
USDA’s March planting survey found USS farmers intending to plant 92 million acres to corn this season compared to 89.5 million acres in 2022. We have estimated trend yield at 180 bushels and a trend yield 2023 corn crop at Read more…
USDA reported a slight year over year increase in the US market hog inventory as of 3/1/2023. US barrow & gilt slaughter over the next six months will likely be within plus or minus one percent of the year earlier Read more…
We estimate the US hog inventory on March 1, 2023 at 75 million head, up 2% from the previous count. We have based our assumption for the December/February pig crop, which is the major unknown in calculating the first quarter Read more…
The number of cattle in US feedlots declined 4% over the last year. January 2023 net feeder cattle placements were down 4% year over year while finished cattle marketings last month were 4% larger than in the same month a Read more…
August live cattle appear to have significant upside potential based on the latest supply/usage forecasts from USDA. We present the results of a cattle price forecast model which uses US beef production and exports combined with the US Gross Domestic Read more…
Historically August lean hog values have been closely associated with summer pork production, pork exports and the US gross domestic economic income. The GDI contains both real economic growth and inflation. We have assumed a 2% growth rate in real Read more…
US farmers are likely to increase corn planted area in 2023 despite increased production costs. Corn at current old crop prices provide favorable returns to land after deducting variable costs data as provided by USDA. Corn returns also hold an edge Read more…
Historically, soybean prices relative to corn returns, combined with past acreage trends. has accounted for 93% of the variation in the March soybean planted area survey forecast. Plugging in this year’s soybean and corn values results in a 88.9 million Read more…
This month USDA forecast the 2022/2023 US soybean carryout at 225 million bushels or 5% of crop year Usage. July soybean meal futures prices have advanced more than declined in 13 of 15 years (since 1970) in which USDA forecast Read more…
USDA reported the potential feeder cattle dropped by one million head over the last year. We have scattered the price range for the June finished cattle contract as a function of the potential feeder supply. The projected price range is Read more…
June hog futures prices have advanced more than declined in 15 of 24 years in which the preceding year *year t) pig crop was less than the previous year’s (year t-1) level. In December USDA estimated the June 2022 to Read more…
July Soybean Conditioned Seasonal This month the USDA forecast the 2022/2023 US soybean carryout at 210 million bushels or 5% of crop year usage (crush + exports + seed). July soybeans prices have advanced more than declined in 14 of Read more…
Bullish Seasonal for July Corn This month the USDA forecast the 2023 US corn carryover at 1.2 billion bushels or 14% of crop year FSI usage plus crop year exports. July corn has advanced more than declined in 8 of Read more…
This month USDA projected a 4% reduction in the domestically produced per capita beef supply for the first half of 2023. We have scattered the June live cattle winter-spring high and low (adjusted for inflation) as a function of the Read more…
This month USDA forecast the 2022/2023 crop year US soybean carryout at 210 million bushels or 4.8% of crop year usage. July soybean oil has advanced more than declined in 8 of 9 years in which the USDA January US Read more…